A Look at Israel’s Political Challenges and Overcoming Them

It’s tough to analyze how things will play out for Israel in the wake of any of the instances of instability in the Arab World over the past year. Virtually any article on the topic is contrived. The reason is simply because Israel is not central to the conflicts. The analysis and opinion are mostly a response to Jewish anxiety. So I am going to try to debut for the Beacon by setting a stage. It is tough to be honest when analyzing the Middle East. Everything is conjecture, even with the best academic background in the subject. Just weeks before Syria exploded, experts explained why Syria hadn’t seen the demonstrations other countries had.

Israel is pretty overwhelmed by the idea of what could happen next with Syria and Iran. These two countries dominate the discussion regarding Israel’s security, namely because the strategy is so ambiguous. How might a Syrian civil war affect the Jewish State’s well-being? A simplistic approach might be to lean on Syria’s diversity for a future, prosperous relationship between the two countries.  After all, wouldn’t those groups have the most interest in a relationship with another group in perpetual conflict with the Sunnis of the Middle East?

But Syria defies the stereotype of Israel’s many enemies. On the contrary, the creed the country’s leaders follow might be outside the boundaries of Islam. The Alawites have a tradition long pacified by the Sunni empires of the last thousand years. But as members of the secular, Arab nationalist movements, younger adherents catapulted to the top of the military ranks. The coup that followed brought in a regime whose supporters came from the minorities of the Middle East: Christians, Alawites, Druze and Ismailis. Fearing the oppression of a Sunni majority, they have always seen the privilege extended them by the Assad ruling family as indisputably superior to being under the thumb.

Neither side of such a conflict would be a natural partner to the Jewish State. Based on this, it is hard from my perspective to see how a Syrian civil war would endanger Israel. Syria is now more exposed than it has been in nearly 50 years. The government is hard-pressed to gain control despite its brutality in the past year. Hezbollah is panicking and listening to warnings of revenge coming from the armed Syrian opposition.  Hamas wants to move its headquarters from Damascus (and rub elbows with Turkey).  Hamas is even splitting over its alliance with Iran.

What we are witnessing in the Middle East is just as much tied to ethnic, religious, and tribal rivalries as it is tied to civil liberties and resisting an oppressive government. The Libyan Civil War in 2011 was a war of tribal alliances from different regions of the country. In Iraq, sectarian conflict was complicated by religious diversity within tribes and kin resisting fighting each other. In Syria, evidence is far and widespread the same themes dominate the violence.

Before Israel executes any strategy, it must decide what to aim for when the dust settles in ten weeks, ten months, or ten years. Personally, I don’t see Israel having many goals set on the diplomatic front, even with the Palestinians – is Israel’s ultimate goal security, Jerusalem, two states, or something else? With Syria, the issues are similar. Is Israel’s ultimate goal détente, the Golan Heights, peace, or something else?

Israel’s had contact with the Syrian opposition.  Optimistically, Syria might even turn out to be the next country Israel signs a treaty with, even replacing Egypt as a pragmatic security partner.  The Muslim Brotherhood or something like it will probably not come to power in a new Syria, and that among many things will keep Israel from having an idealized alliance with the minorities of the Middle East.