When football was still being played without full headgear, the quarterback’s throwing capabilities were not the most important aspect of the offense. In a then-smashmouth game glorifying ‘three yards and a cloud of dust,’ the team’s running game controlled the clock, kept opposing defenses on the field, and was responsible for most of the yardage. Passing was a low-percentage play; QBs failed to complete even 50% of their passes, and the threat of a drive-killing interception deterred all teams from using it consistently.

But as football expanded to a national audience, the air attack took on a more prominent role. Wide receivers (Split End/ Flanker) began to spread out the field in the 40s and 50s, and in the following decade the American Football League popularized the passing game with its open play. From 1979-82, the San Diego Chargers led the league in passing six consecutive times thanks to the “Air Coryell” attack, which prided itself on getting all five eligible receivers (2 WR, TE, 2 RB) out to catch passes. And when NFL coaches failed to innovate, the NFL rules’ committee obliged; over the past decade, defensive players have become increasingly limited in how they can act on the field. Hitting a quarterback low or after the play is heavily penalized, and cornerbacks can no longer bump receivers after the first five yards from scrimmage. Clearly, possessing a good quarterback is a must in a vertical world. Without a solid signal caller, no team can hope to hoist the Super Bowl Trophy.

Even though there are more solid quarterbacks in the NFL than ever before, only ten to fifteen QBs have a legitimate chance of leading a team to a title. Since 2000, only Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer have crashed the club of strong quarterbacks that have won Super Bowls. Even that statement is portrayed falsely; Johnson was a fine player who snuck into two Pro Bowls by limiting his turnovers. Only Dilfer was subpar, and he benefitted from a historically strong defense that played before the 2000s rule changes. The rest of the list consists of Tom Brady (3x), Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger (2x), Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning. All are talented, elite QBs with the exception of Eli, who sustained an incredible run and consistently rates in the top 15.

These facts leave teams without a quality arm fearful, in a constant state of flux. Many weak teams have spent their top draft picks on QBs, hoping to find their cornerstone for the next 8-12 years. But for every Peyton Manning – a successful first overall pick – there is a bust waiting in the wings. Since Manning went first, nine quarterbacks have been selected, with the following (arbitrarily analyzed) results:

1999: Tim Couch – Bust. Couch threw more interceptions than touchdowns. He did help lead them to a wild card berth once. (Yay)
2001: Michael Vick – Success. Even if he did a bit of time in the slammer, Vick revolutionized the way we look at QBs today.
2002: David Carr – Bust. It didn’t help that he was on his behind every other time he dropped back to pass.
2003: Carson Palmer – Success. Carried Cincinnati to the playoffs twice, and eclipsed 20 passing TDs five times.
2004: Eli Manning – Success. We measure players by their ability to win, and Manning threw 6 TD with only 1 INT in his 2007 Super Bowl run. Also is extraordinarily durable; 111 straight starts.
2005: Alex Smith – Bust. Smith has started for San Francisco a full 16 times in only one season, and his career QB rating is a poor 74.3. He has looked sharp in 2011, though.
2007: JaMarcus Russell – Bust. Isn’t it astonishing that he was drafted only four years ago?
2009: Matthew Stafford – TBD. Stafford looks like a strong NFL quarterback when not on the shelf, but he never has enjoyed continued health.
2010: Sam Bradford – TBD. He threw for 3500 yards in his rookie season, but the Rams are 0-5 when he has started in 2011.
2011: Cam Newton – TBD, but on his way toward success. Boy, has he shocked some people this season. Just another reminder of what a talented QB can do for a football team.

For those not counting, the score remains at three successes and four busts. Don’t forget that a team needs to invest millions of dollars, several years, and in some instances (Eli Manning, Michael Vick) additional draft picks and assets into a highly rated college quarterback. It is therefore unsurprising that the busts have precisely 0 playoff starts and have won an abysmal 33% of games started. (71-142)

Next time, we will discuss some of the ways teams without top QBs have handled their quarterback situation in 2011. Until then, may the light of Tebow-ism guide you in your quest for success.